☕️ Coming soon in H2 - RON95 subsidy rationalisation

1. MARKET SUMMARY 📈

2. NUMBERS AT A GLANCE 🔢

Malaysia is grappling with a significant brain drain issue, with 1.86 mil Malaysians having emigrated over the past 50 years, as stated by Digital Minister Gobind Singh Deo. This figure represents 5.6% of the population, which is higher than the global average of 3.6%. To counter this, initiatives like the National Semiconductor Strategy aim to train 60,000 high-skilled semiconductor engineers. Additionally, the Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone is projected to create 100,000 high-quality job opportunities in key sectors and attract skilled knowledge workers by offering a 15% tax rate for 10 years.

Spotify has paid more than USD100 mil (RM422.8 mil) to podcast publishers and creators since January, a result of a 2025 program designed to open new revenue streams for eligible hosts. This initiative also aims to attract more creators and their audiences to Spotify, especially as video podcasting gains prominence and draws many creators to YouTube. Video now dominates podcasting, with over half of Americans aged 12 and above having watched a video podcast, primarily on YouTube, according to a January report by Edison Research. Spotify faces a significant challenge in catching up with YouTube, which paid out more than USD70 billion to creators and media companies from 2021 to 2024.

The Malaysia Chamber of Commerce and Industry in China (MayCham) anticipates a 15 to 20% increase in the volume of China's durian imports from Malaysia this year. In 2024, China imported 19.25 mil kg from Malaysia worth USD212.05 mil (RM1 billion). This projected growth is attributed to sustained consumer demand in China, particularly for premium varieties like Musang King and D24, even in the face of recent weather-related challenges in Malaysia. MayCham chairman Loh Wee Keng noted that Chinese consumer demand continues to exceed supply, and despite premature fruit drops due to heavy rain, the overall export volume is expected to rise. He further explained that Malaysia's Musang King durian continues to attract strong interest, especially among premium fruit consumers in China.

3. IN MALAYSIA 🇲🇾

From the ASEAN Summit 

PM Anwar’s The Art of The Deal: Extends invite Trump to summit to discuss tariff
PM Anwar stated yesterday in his opening remarks at the summit that he had written to U.S. President Donald Trump, to seek request for a summit between the ASEAN leaders and the aforementioned world leader. Amid Washington’s new trade policies, causing fallouts throughout the ASEAN nations, Anwar’s intentions lie in diminishing the negative effects on the nations.

The letter seeking President Trump’s understanding towards the summit tentatively sets the date for October, though it also proposes convening it as early as possible. Some ASEAN members, however, hold hesitancy towards the existence of such a summit, fearing ridicule, not dissimilar to what South African President Cyril Ramaphosa faced last week as Trump falsely accused the nation of white genocide.

As the U.S. stands as one of ASEAN’s most important export markets, its reciprocal tariffs range anywhere from 10% on Singaporean goods on the low end, to 49% on Laotian products on the high end.

ASEAN’s new vision: ASEAN Community Vision 2045 (ACV 2045)
Along with the first day of the ASEAN summit comes a new agreed-upon vision for the next two decades. Replacing the previous roadmap, ASEAN 2025: Forging Ahead Together, this new vision instead seems to place more importance on deep inter-regional connections and cooperation.

Within ACV 2045, stand three foundational pillars:

• Political-Security Community, which emphasises the maintenance of peace, security and stability through ASEAN-led mechanisms and a significance on a rules-based international order.

• Economic Community, which desires the fostering of innovation and enhancing competitiveness, thus promoting sustainable economic growth.

• Sociocultural Community, which aims to build a society that is inclusive, cohesive, and promotes the well-being and rights of its people.

The vision also highlights the need for embracing innovation and especially sustainable practices to address the emerging challenges and opportunities within the region. Furthermore, the well-being of ASEAN’s citizens was also stressed, placing the core of ACV 2045 at promoting its citizens' inclusivity, equity, and active participation in the region’s development.

The multi-million dollar business of forged passports and fake work visas
Syndicates specialising in documentation fraud are running rampant, with some earning millions yearly, stated immigration director Zakaria Shaaban. His department had reportedly found that such syndicates were charging RM100 to RM150 per passport, and producing around 100 passports a day.

These syndicates are able to offer brand new passports to internationals without travel documents, which then creates new sets of biodata for potential clients to apply for health check-ups with the Foreign Workers Medical Examination Monitoring Agency. They are also able to arrange appointments between their clients and certain clinics for a fee of RM200. And for a fee of RM1k to RM1.5k, syndicates are even able to amend the details of legitimate passports.

Operating from legitimate business premises and private condo units, these syndicates are able to hide from the immigration department. Despite their effectiveness, Zakaria also highlighted that the number of actual standalone syndicates is beginning to dwindle as countries move towards digital systems with e-passes and mobile passport readers to detect document fraud.

MoF to proceed with RON95 subsidy rationalisation in H2
The rationalisation of RON95 fuel subsidies will be implemented in the second half of the year. The Ministry of Finance intend to harness their focus on identifying the specific groups eligible for the subsidy. According to the MoF, PM Anwar and the Cabinet are discussing the eligibility threshold for Malaysians, where the qualifying level to receive said subsidies would be raised. The government is also considering the usage of MyKads to implement the mechanism for targeted RON95 subsidies, on the basis that every Malaysian citizen has an IC, as well as the fact that it has already been used similarly under Sumbangan Asas Rahmah (Sara), proving effective.

Business

Petronas Gas suffered RM170 mil total loss from gas pipeline fire, RM60 mil lost to repair and revenue loss
Petronas Gas Sdn Bhd expects a total financial impact of RM170 mil from the gas pipeline fire on Apr 1, adversely affecting this financial year’s profits by RM60 mil. While most of the costs are recorded as capital expenditure, a portion is covered by insurance. The disruption alone caused the company revenue loss from disruption of RM20 mil, and repair costs and revenue loss combined caused a total RM60 mil profit impact. The estimated loss, predictions based on current conditions of the site and damage, are subject to change after official investigations.

U Mobile x TM 5G rollout: 10-year, RM2.4 bil deal 
Tycoon Vincent Tan’s U Mobile Sdn Bhd entered into this deal with Telekom Malaysia Sdn Bhd today, worth RM2.4 bil and a contract spanning 10 years. In order to speed up U Mobile’s nationwide 5G rollout, TM is to provide fibre infrastructure services, including leased lines, data centre access, and network connectivity. TM’s 740,000km fibre network, which also happens to be the widest in the nation, will assist U Mobile in reaching 80% population coverage within 12 months by July 2026. U Mobile is the provider of Malaysia’s second 5G network, after Digital Nasional Bhd (DNB).

4. AROUND THE WORLD 🌎

The ‘u’ in Trump: u-turns

Putin "absolutely crazy", says Trump
Following Moscow’s largest aerial attack yet on Ukraine, US President Donald Trump has called Russian President Putin “absolutely crazy” and said that Putin was “needlessly killing a lot of people”. Trump also indicated he is considering increasing US sanctions on Russia. A Kremlin spokesperson said the decision was “necessary for the security” of Russia. The aerial attack involved 355 drones and nine cruise missiles, with at least 12 killed and dozens injured. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy was also criticised by Trump, who said that everything out of Zelenskyy’s mouth “causes problems” and that Zelenskyy “better stop”.

Trump to delay 50% tariffs on EU
After announcing on Friday a potential 50% tariff on the EU, Trump shared that he has agreed to extend the deadline for the 50% tariff from June 1, 2025, to July 9, 2025, following a call with European Commission President von der Leyen. The call was described as “good”, with talks between the EU and the US to “begin rapidly”. Still, the 10% base tariff the US has on the EU as a result of the Liberation Day tariffs remains. Good enough to get the market to rally - global markets climbed and the euro rallied 0.23% to USD1.138, the highest since late April.

US Steel-Nippon Steel deal now a "planned partnership" with Trump's sudden approval
Trump changed his tune about Nippon Steel’s USD14.9 bil acquisition of US Steel Corp, reversing his opposition into approval after Nippon Steel pledged to make massive new investments in American operations. The deal, now a “planned partnership”, will create at least 70,000 new jobs and add USD14 bil to the US economy, according to Trump. This approval has been welcomed by both Nippon Steel and US Steel, with the latter also issuing a statement saying the firm will remain American and will grow bigger and stronger through the partnership with Nippon Steel.

Tech Business

BYD brings back the EV price war
BYD’s shares dropped about 8% while peers like Geely, Li Auto, and Great Wall Motor saw shares slip about 5% following BYD’s announcement that it will be cutting prices on 22 of its products by up to 35%. The discount, which covered some of its electric and plug-in hybrid models, will last until the end of June and marks the latest escalation in a sector-wide price war meant to kickstart sluggish consumer demand. This also comes as the growth in EV sales has been decelerating despite EV sales reaching new heights overall. Rival automakers are now expected to trim their prices, leading to further pressure on already thin margins.

OpenAI to open new Seoul office
The ChatGPT parent will be setting up the South Korean office “soon”, with more details to follow in the coming months. OpenAI revealed that South Korea has the highest number of paid ChatGPT subscribers outside the US, and that the growth of the South Korean user base has been “off the charts”. OpenAI attributed South Korea’s high AI adoption rate to the country’s “strong tech industry, culture of innovation across enterprise and academia, and appetite from the wider public for using AI tools in their daily lives".

Nvidia to launch cheaper Blackwell AI chip for China
The chipmaker will be launching a new AI chipset for China at a “significantly lower price” compared to its recently restricted H20 model, with sources saying mass production will be starting as early as July. The chip will be part of Nvidia’s latest generation of Blackwell-architecture AI processors, and is expected to be priced between USD6,500 to USD8,000, compared to H20’s price tag of between USD10,000 to USD12,000. The lower price also reflects its weaker specifications and simpler manufacturing requirements.

Shorts

1. "Retaliation" alleged to be cause of gang fight at Australian mall

   Police have determined that “retaliation” between two gangs was the likely cause of a Melbourne shopping centre machete attack that left one person seriously injured. The fight involved 10 people “wildly” swinging machetes at one another, and of the ten, two have been arrested while police are working to identify the other eight.

2. Lilo and Stitch top box office with USD341 mil in ticket sales

   The Disney live-action remake exceeded expectations with USD341 mil in ticket sales, surpassing the eighth Mission Impossible film, which raked in USD190 mil in ticket sales. Lilo and Stitch’s record-breaking box office debut marks it as the second highest opening in 2025 so far after A Minecraft Movie. Watch the trailer here.

3. Indonesia seizes two tonnes of meth in biggest bust ever

   Authorities seized the methamphetamine off Sumatra island, and believe the drugs are linked to a syndicate in the Golden Triangle, an area where northeastern Myanmar meets parts of Thailand and Laos. The area has a long history of drug production. The latest seizure comes after Indonesia's navy seized a ship carrying nearly 2 tons of methamphetamine and cocaine worth USD425 million in the same area in the west of the archipelago earlier this month.

5. FOR YOUR EYES 📺

1. World Robot Competition Series - the world’s first humanoid robot kickboxing tournament in Hangzhou, China. While many are amused by it, to the US - ‘national security threat’.

2. Petronas vs Petros — who else better to explain this debacle than Idris Jala, a Sarawakian, former MD of Shell Sri Lanka and minister. An interesting lens of politics + business + native.

3. Ignore the political context behind this image. The multiple perspectives in an organisation.