☕️ F1 coming back to Malaysia?

1. MARKET SUMMARY 📈

2. NUMBERS AT A GLANCE 🔢

More than 2.2 mil – That’s the number of people who are members of the private Thai Facebook group “Royalist Marketplace”. The group was founded by exiled royal critic and scholar Pavin Chachavalpongpun as a forum to discuss the Thai monarchy. The group is an unprecedented development in Thai society. However, commenters are still bound by the lese-majeste, or royal insult, law. According to data from the Thai Lawyers for Human Rights group, 291 people have been charged under the law since 2020, with at least 17 prosecuted for comments posted in the “Royalist Marketplace” Facebook group. The most recent was a 43-year-old man who was sentenced to three years in prison, though this was reduced by half as the man confessed.

More than 2,200 – Australia’s eSafety Commissioner received that number of sexual extortion complaints between Jul 1, 2025, and Dec 31, 2025, in which criminals trick victims into sharing intimate images before demanding money and threatening to expose them to family and friends. The largest group of victims was men aged 18 to 24, with 803 cases, or about 36.5% of the total. Children under 15 also fell prey to these criminals, with 186 complaints received from boys and 58 from girls. WhatsApp, Instagram, and TikTok were the primary platforms used by the abusers, leading to the Australian regulator calling for social media platforms to address the “significant gaps” in how they protect users. Full report available here.

GBP233 mil (RM1.27 bil) – Prominent UK insurer Aviva detected false insurance claims worth that much in 2025, due to scammers turning to new tricks such as using AI to fake car accident scenes and documents, as well as to exaggerate damage. More than 18,400 suspicious claims were identified across its brands over the past year, though this is also the insurer’s first year to include the Direct Line brands it acquired in Jul 2025. The head of claims counter fraud at Aviva said that fraud is not a victimless crime, as it “drives up the cost of insurance for everyone”. Over 70% of Aviva’s bogus claims detected by its UK general insurance business alone are motor insurance fraud cases.

3. IN MALAYSIA 🇲🇾

Uncovering HRD Corp
The Human Resources Development Corporation (HRD Corp - the ‘H’ isn’t hedged fund) is an agency under the Ministry of Human Resources that collects statutory levies from registered employers to fund employee upskilling, retraining, and development programmes, aiming to build a highly skilled workforce. Not surprisingly, HRD Corp is a cash-rich entity, where its cash and bank balances have remained substantial, almost doubling from RM1.25 bil in 2016 to RM2.39 bil in 2025.

However, rather than simply becoming a body that governs the distribution of the money it collects, HRD Corp dips its toes in the financial markets quite significantly (they think the H is for hedged fund), where its financial investments grew from RM157.75 mil in 2016 to RM1.92 bil in 2025. Initially, HRD Corp only invested in fairly safe quoted securities and unit trusts; however, later, the agency ventured into ‘riskier’ put and call options, and even redeemable convertible cumulative preference shares (RCCPS). RCCPS are a hybrid financial instrument that blends features of debt and equity. Visit the preceding link to see all the colourful charts of this hedged fund wannabe institution.

Not surprisingly, as an entity whose investing is not its forte, the returns from its investment activities, especially in derivatives, sucks. HRD Corp’s net derivatives position fluctuated from a liability of RM15.26 mil in 2020 to an asset of RM11.15 mil in 2021, before reverting to a net liability that deepened to RM108.31 mil by 2025. Maybe it is time to shut down its investment arm once and for all, and the agency should just focus on governing the levies it collected.

Tabung Haji RCI report to be released soon
PM Anwar Ibrahim announced that the Royal Commission of Inquiry (RCI) report on Lembaga Tabung Haji (TH) will be released soon, as he needs to consult the Chief Secretary on whether the report will have to be tabled to the Cabinet first. Previously, the Cabinet had agreed that the report should be made public but was cautioned to wait as TH is currently undergoing reforms. Maybe the release date of the report will be after the Negeri Sembilan state election, eh?

At the same time, former Economy Minister Rafizi Ramli accused PM Anwar of delaying the release of the report in order to keep his UMNO buddies at bay. Rafizi stated that the report should have been released back in 2023, when it was completed. He added that, allegedly, PM Anwar decided back then to bury the report to protect UMNO’s feelings.

Formula 1 coming back to Malaysia?
Formula 1 is exploring its options to fill the gap between the Azerbaijan Grand Prix (Sept 26) and the Singapore Grand Prix (Oct 11), after previously cancelling the Saudi Arabia and Bahrain legs due to the US-Iran War. The recent resumption of hostilities in the Middle East has led to fresh uncertainty over getting Bahrain back on the calendar in that gap.

With that, according to The Athletic, Malaysia’s Sepang International Circuit in Malaysia has now emerged as an option to go into that gap. The circuit on the outskirts of Kuala Lumpur would be well-placed geographically, ahead of the race in Singapore, which is less than one hour away by plane. The track was widely liked by F1 drivers through its time on the calendar, which last featured an F1 race in 2017. However, at the time of writing, no agreement has been made, nor has any final decision been taken. Previously, former Youth and Sports Minister Hannah Yeoh stated that it will cost about RM300 mil per annum to bring back F1 to Malaysia.

Shorts:

1. Malaysia to buy French-made surface-to-air missile system
   After the whole kerfuffle with Norway, the Defence Ministry has signed a letter of acceptance (LOA) with MBDA France for the procurement of a surface-to-air missile (SAM) system for the Littoral Combat Ships (LCS). The deal is rumoured to be worth USD123 mil (RM502.91 mil). Previously, Norway cancelled a deal for naval strike missiles, which Putrajaya said it had already paid for almost entirely, amounting to about USD244 mil, that has triggered a diplomatic row and forced Malaysia to seek alternatives.

2. Sunway to grow its presence in Singapore
   Sunway's Singapore property arm, through its 30%-owned joint venture, Gemini Residential Pte Ltd and Gemini Trustee Pte Ltd, have been awarded the tender for a 99-year leasehold land parcel at Bayshore Drive, Singapore, worth RM6.7 bil. The land has been earmarked for a mixed-use residential and commercial development. This includes a retail mall spanning 22,100 sq m in gross floor area. According to Hong Leong Investment Bank (HLIB) Research, the project is expected to yield RM83.2mil in net profit per annum from financial year 2028 (FY28) to FY31.

3. Malaysia to halt refugee registrations
   Deputy Foreign Minister Lukanisman Awang Sauni told Parliament that Putrajaya has instructed the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) to halt all refugee registrations temporarily to allow for the restructuring of the management system via the Refugee Registration Document (DPP) programme. He stated that under the DPP program, the government will have more visibility and control over data management, without relying on records maintained by foreign entities. Lukanisman said that registration under the DPP will be carried out through a strict process to prevent the entry of illegal immigrants in the future.

4. AROUND THE WORLD 🌎

Google pushes further into AI, incurs first negative cash flow
If in doubt, double down. That seems to be the mantra of big tech companies when spending on AI. Alphabet, the parent company of Google, has raised its capital spending forecast to as high as USD205 bil (RM838.2 bil) from USD190 bil previously. That did not go down well with investors, as the company’s share price declined by 3.6% in the pre-market. What’s worse is that the company reported its first negative free cash flow of USD5.9 bil since going public two decades ago.

The culprit? Capital expenditure doubled from USD22 bil in Q2 2025 to USD45 bil in Q2 2026. It seems like everyone else is sceptical about big tech’s massive AI spending except for big tech themselves. CEO Sundar Pichai said that cloud growth continued to be driven by strong demand for AI infrastructure and AI solutions. And this is backed by numbers. Cloud revenue grew by 82% for Q2 2026 and beat expectations while its cloud backlog (contracts that haven’t been recognised as revenue) grew to USD514 bil from USD460 bil in Q1 2026. He also highlighted that he was ‘encouraged’ by Gemini 4’s progress and that Google will begin releasing models at a faster pace. Only time will tell whether Alphabet will generate a positive ROI out of all these investments.

Never say never: Musk on SpaceX-Tesla merger
The SpaceX-Tesla merger speculation never dies, and Elon Musk is doing his best to keep that alive. On Tesla’s earnings call, Musk said, ‘As you can tell from the many collaborations on so many fronts with SpaceX, there’s more and more overlap. We can't talk about, you know, combining companies and that kind of thing on an earnings call’. SpaceX’s share price has recently fallen below its listing price of USD135 (RM551.97) to about USD115 as of Jul 23. Short-sellers had a field day with SpaceX, earning USD15.5 bil on paper from shorting the company.

Gene Munster, managing partner of Deepwater Asset Management, put the odds at 90% that both SpaceX and Tesla will merge. Tesla supplies batteries and manufacturing technologies to SpaceX projects, while both companies are jointly developing Terafab, a semiconductor manufacturing facility to produce AI chips. If you remember, Intel is also part of the Terafab project. SpaceX has a market capitalisation of USD1.52 tril, while Tesla has USD1.17 tril. This gives them a combined USD2.69 tril in market capitalisation.

Forget Iran, next inflation shock is coming from El Niño
The global markets are about to be hit with a double whammy of inflation. Forget about Iran, the next big inflation shock will come from the current El Niño cycle. Deutsche Bank has warned that an intense warming phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean could be on the way. Henry Allen, the macro strategist, warned that ‘today's episode is particularly concerning because forecasts suggest it will be a very strong one, ranking among the most serious in recent history’.

El Niño is a cyclical climate pattern in the Eastern Pacific and affects weather patterns around the world. This meant higher instances of flooding, temperature swings, droughts and larger potential for diseases to spread. This could disrupt food production, hydropower, and shipping, which raises prices. Fewer crops and livestock due to flooding and droughts mean higher food prices. In 2024, lower water levels at the Panama Canal raised shipping rates. The US Climate Prediction Centre forecast a 73% chance of a ‘strong’ El Niño between Jul and Sept, and an 81% chance of ‘very strong’ from Oct to Nov.

Geopolitics

US signs nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia
Well, an enemy of your enemy is your friend. Iran can’t enrich uranium, so the US decided that an enemy of Iran, Saudi Arabia, can do so. The US signed a landmark nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia that could allow it to enrich uranium in the future. This has been in the works since Trump’s first term, and it faced opposition as it could mean Saudi Arabia could gain access to nuclear weapon development. However, this would need Congress to review.

The Saudis could have forced the US's hand in this, as it has said that it will look to Russia and China for nuclear technology if it cannot get it from the US. The US has worded the deal as to ‘prevent strategic competition from seizing an opportunity to undermine United States national security interests for decades to come’. The timing is controversial as the US is fighting a war with Iran, which is allegedly enriching uranium. Rosemary Kelanic, the head of the Middle East program at Defence Priorities, said “Giving Saudi Arabia uranium enrichment technology is a terrible idea on many counts. But it’s especially idiotic to do it in the middle of a war over Iran’s nuclear programme.”

5 Thai soldiers killed by rifle and pipe bombs
10 assailants, dressed in black and wearing black brimmed hats, riding a pickup truck and motorcycles, fired shots and threw pipe bombs at the Buketa Sami security checkpoint in Narathiwat province located in southern Thailand. Five Thai paramilitary soldiers were killed, while six civilians were wounded. The attackers seized three AK-47 rifles, three bulletproof vests, and several mobile phones from the checkpoint before fleeing. Authorities found the pickup truck dumped and burned about 21 km from the scene.

So far, no group has claimed responsibility. The Thai government condemns this as an act of terrorism and says it was one of the deadliest in recent years. A day earlier, a car bomb exploded outside the former Tanyong police station in Narathiwat, also injuring an officer. The Narathiwat, Pattani and Yala provinces in the south of Thailand are predominantly populated by Malay Muslims and have seen an armed separatist conflict since 2004. More than 7,000 people have been killed.

Here is a video of the attack.

5. FOR YOUR EYES 📺

1. Did you know the Commonwealth Games are happening now? Probably got overshadowed by the World Cup. Relic of the British past, should just end it. Anyways, the games are taking place in Scotland. They got a ‘dragon’ from Game of Thrones to participate in the opening ceremony. A closer look at the dragon here.

2. The multiple fail-safe features of a parachute.

3. PSA: When drive, see big big truck, stay far far. Not everyone’s reflexes as good as the guy in the video.

4. Last one for the week - be financially grateful, if you can. Have a good weekend folks!