☕️ Super El Niño phenomenon, super dengue outbreaks

1. MARKET SUMMARY 📈

2. NUMBERS AT A GLANCE 🔢

187,484 – According to Bangladesh’s Directorate General of Health Services, that’s the number of measles infections recorded since an outbreak began in Mar, with at least 1,002 children dead due to the disease. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said that this is the largest outbreak of measles in the world. Investigations by the WHO and UNICEF linked the crisis to gaps in the country’s immunisation programme due to the political turmoil that followed the ousting of then-PM Sheikh Hasina, when changes to procurement policy created a vaccine shortage. While a nationwide emergency vaccination drive vaccinated 18 mil children in April, official figures show about 4 mil were never reached, meaning herd immunity was not achieved. This also comes as Bangladesh is dealing with a surge in dengue fever cases, with more than 45,000 people admitted for the disease, further straining hospitals. Nearly 1 in 3 children of every 1,000 children infected with measles will die from it - read more here.

Almost 100% – That’s how much of Nepal’s electricity comes from hydropower, which is how the recent flood disaster could knock out more than 10% of the country’s total power generation capacity when it severely damaged 12 hydropower plants in the Trishuli River basin. This is yet another blow to the country, as it managed to export hydroelectricity to India and Bangladesh to earn nearly USD200 mil (RM814.1 mil) each year before the disaster. While hundreds more hydropower plants are either being constructed or are in the pipeline now, in addition to the country’s 225 existing facilities, the state-owned Nepal Electricity Authority has acknowledged that it may be time to “rethink” the hydropower policy, as climate-related disasters were becoming more frequent.

USD4.78 bil (RM19.46 bil) – Nepal estimates that the reconstruction bill after the floods on Aug 26, 2026 will come to that much, according to the country’s foreign ministry. The catastrophe claimed the lives of more than 1,400 people, with 5,600 still missing, including 55 Malaysians. Nepal’s PM, Balendra Shah, will address the UN General Assembly later this month to draw the attention of the international community to the “repeated loss of life and property Nepal has had to face, due to climate change and the disasters created by it”. While the exact cause of the glacial collapse that triggered the floods remains unclear, climate change is causing glaciers to melt worldwide, increasing the risk of such disasters.

To those affected by this disaster, we offer our deepest condolences.

3. IN MALAYSIA 🇲🇾

Putrajaya agrees to more seats for East Malaysia
PM Anwar Ibrahim announced that Putrajaya agrees to increase the proportion of parliamentary representation for Sabah and Sarawak beyond the current level, in line with the spirit of the Malaysia Agreement 1963 (MA63). However, there is one caveat. PM Anwar said that when MA63 was drafted and signed, the agreement was that Singapore, Sabah and Sarawak, as a collective, would control one-third of the Parliament. Obviously, without Singapore in the picture, the proportion would be lower, but the ratio for Sabah and Sarawak would, on purpose, be higher than the current state. The final mechanism would be formulated by the Election Commission (EC).

EC will conduct a review of electoral constituency boundaries, subject to amendments to the Federal Constitution (2/3 majority votes required in Parliament), in line with the announcement by PM Anwar. The last major federal electoral boundary redelineation for Peninsular Malaysia was completed in March 2018, just before the 14th General Election. For other regions, the last reviews took place in Sarawak in 2015 and Sabah in 2017.

Another UMNO General Assembly, another round of rhetoric

UMNO President Zahid Hamidi dares PM Anwar to kick his party out of the government
In playing his cards to nudge for a snap election, UMNO President Ahmad Zahid Hamidi played a game of truth or dare with PM Anwar to eject UMNO from the unity government or call for election. The taunts by Zahid were not surprising as he intends to continue Barisan Nasional (BN)’s momentum after winning the state elections of Johor and Negeri Sembilan. Speaking during the UMNO general assembly, Zahid told some 3,000 delegates that the current unity government exists only because of UMNO’s backing. Quite a full-circle moment for UMNO, as just not so long ago, UMNO was the bruised partner that PM Anwar rescued in 2022.

UMNO opens ‘widest doors’ to PAS
This is for holding a one-million strong Muslims gathering to promote Malay-Muslim unity. Not a political cooperation yet, but all signs are pointing to it. After the 2018 general election, UMNO and PAS entered a short-lived political cooperation called Muafakat Nasional and were part of the federal government led by Muhyiddin Yassin, followed by Ismail Sabri Yaakob between March 2020 and October 2022. The UMNO-led Barisan Nasional coalition later switched support to Pakatan Harapan and formed the unity government after the 15th general election in November 2022. PAS delegates, led by PAS Secretary-General Takiyuddin Hassan, also attended the UMNO general assembly.

Shorts

1. BYD scrapped Tanjung Malim plan

   The largest manufacturer of electric vehicles, BYD, has dropped its plan to build a vehicle assembly plant in Tanjung Malim, Perak. However, the EV manufacturer is still committed to starting local completely knocked-down (CKD) assembly operations. Previously, BYD reconsidered its Tanjung Malim plans after terms set by the Ministry of Investment, Trade and Industry (MITI) called for up to 80% of cars produced in Tanjung Malim to be exported, while the remaining 20% of production would need to be priced above RM200,000 per unit. In May, BYD was reportedly considering a contract assembly partnership with Sime Motors’ Inokom plant in Kulim, Kedah.

2. DBKL reiterated that its walkway dining policy is not new

   Kuala Lumpur City Hall (DBKL) said that allowing eatery operators to place tables and chairs on walkways is not a new policy, but an enhancement of guidelines established in 2017. It has given approval for operators to put tables and chairs on five-foot walkways with a RM30 monthly permit per table and chair. But a DBKL spokesman added that parking bays are unauthorised areas for placing tables and chairs because their primary function must be maintained for public parking.

3. Malaysia is seeking direct and visa-free travel to Russia

   PM Anwar announced that direct flights and visa-free travel between Malaysia and Russia could be the next major steps. Both measures were also discussed during his bilateral meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in New Delhi. Malaysia and Russia have maintained longstanding diplomatic relations since 1967, with cooperation spanning trade and investment, energy, education, tourism and defence. The last time a scheduled commercial airline operated a regular, direct route between the two countries was in the early 2000s, when Russia's national carrier, Aeroflot, used to fly directly between Moscow and Kuala Lumpur. That route was cut due to commercial considerations.

4. Another public holiday for Selangor

   State Secretary Dr Ahmad Fadzli Ahmad Tajuddin stated that Shah Alam has declared October 26 as a replacement public holiday in Selangor, in conjunction with the 25th anniversary of the reign of the Sultan of Selangor, Sultan Sharafuddin Idris Shah. The actual date will be on October 25, but because it is a Sunday, the following day, Monday, Oct 26, has been declared a replacement public holiday.

4. AROUND THE WORLD 🌎

Saudi Arabia shuts critical oil pipeline after drone attack
A drone, reported to have been launched from Iraq, has attacked Saudi Arabia’s critical East-West oil pipeline, a 1,200km conduit stretching across the Arabian Peninsula, leading to a temporary closure. The closure has halted the flow of Saudi oil exports, which have become a critical artery for Saudi’s oil exports, especially since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Higher oil prices?
The pipeline has been moving 4 to 5 mil barrels of oil per day (bpd) in recent months, accounting for 4 to 5% of global supply. The capacity has increased specifically to help mitigate the disruption to Saudi oil exports in Hormuz. Now, with the disruption to oil movement, the global energy market is expected to suffer more as US diesel prices hit an all-time high and Brent crude oil – the global benchmark – currently costs more than USD104 per barrel. Analysts say that the key buffers have been worn away, and that the attacks could cause a crisis for the global community. The next 48 hours will be crucial to see if it remains a contained incident or another major regional escalation.

Super El Niño phenomenon, super dengue outbreaks
The arrival of El Niño doesn’t just mean warmer weather and increased air conditioning bills. In tropical countries like Malaysia, it also means elevated risks of dengue outbreaks. Scientists who track dengue fever say that El Niño remains one of the most valuable multi-month climate signals and data available to public health. 

Increased Pacific Ocean temperatures mean hotter, drier conditions in Southeast Asia and Australia, and wetter conditions in parts of South America and East Africa. Aedes mosquitoes thrive in warm temperatures, making them live longer and allowing the dengue virus to replicate faster. Meanwhile, more rainfall brings more collection of water that becomes perfect breeding grounds. Elak air bertakung, remember?

A major study published last year in Nature Communications provided a staggering revelation - El Niño-related temperature changes could explain about 63% of the year-to-year variation in dengue cases. For every 1°C rise in a key Pacific Ocean temperature index, dengue cases increased by 48%. It also showed the outbreaks are growing exponentially, with each event bigger than the last. The signal is clear, and scientists are calling out for us to act.

Anthropic calls for “AI slowdown”
Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has made a new appeal for the AI industry to “slow down” (OpenAI Sam Altman and SpaceX Elon Musk concurred with this), and has offered a three-part plan for doing so. He also added that Anthropic is willing to “unilaterally” commit to the first of the steps. Amodei wrote a post on social media linking an essay titled “We Must Pace the Frontier” that describes how Anthropic would provide “third-party evaluators with permanent, employee-level access to our systems, so that they can verify adherence to our safety measures, report on incidents, and assess models’ alignment during training”.

The post came after a former Anthropic researcher warned that AI could precipitate human extinction by 2030, and after Anthropic published a threat intelligence report (report below, TlDR here) with examples of the most notable and novel threat activity they have identified to date. It included possible scenarios of AI model usage by criminals, state-sponsored groups, spyware vendors, scientists and propagandists. Anthropic even stopped a bad actor in Malaysia on a disinformation campaign.

Shorts

1. Buddhist monk violated celibacy, suspect in USD3 mil embezzlement

   A 66-year-old Buddhist monk has been arrested on suspicion of embezzling THB100 mil (USD3 mil) from his monastery in the ancient capital of Ayutthaya. He was caught alongside a suspected woman accomplice who assisted him in the embezzlement, and who is also his sex partner. He has allegedly pocketed donations meant for the temple on more than 20 occasions over two years, and has violated his celibacy vows as a monk. Thailand continues to be plagued with reports of monks breaking their vow of celibacy, trafficking drugs and committing financial crimes. The action here - NSFW.

2. Micron Taiwan vs union: Workers to get 68 months of pay

   That’s like working 1 year, and get paid nearly 8 years’ worth. Micron Technology has announced that its staff in Taiwan would receive bonuses equaling 35 to 68 months of pay for fiscal 2026, with minimum cash compensation of TWD1.7 million (USD 53,809.39), as the US chipmaker contends with an ongoing labour union dispute. However, the Taoyuan union said that it has yet to reach a consensus with Micron and that it is still seeking to change the company's rewards system that would allocate 15% of operating profit to employee bonuses.

5. FOR YOUR EYES 📺

1. Still half awake on a Monday? What if you wake up to this? Camping on a wall.

2. A rare POV of inside a bus that fell off a bridge in China. No casualties were reported.

3. Comedian Jimmy Carr on dealing with heartbreaks. Sometimes, his replies are more of a philosopher’s than a comedian’s.